Toxic Bullets
Patch 2026-09-29.
Win rate by purchase phase
| Phase | Win rate when bought | Edge over same-tier items |
|---|---|---|
| Bought before 10 min | 53.6% ± 1.2 (n=7,207) | -0.5 pp |
| 10–20 min | 51.5% ± 0.2 (n=202,441) | -0.8 pp |
| 20 min or later | 47.9% ± 0.2 (n=263,689) | -0.1 pp |
Edge over same-tier items, by hero
| Hero | Win rate when bought | Edge over same-tier items |
|---|---|---|
 Sinclair | 54.7% ± 7.4 (n=172) | +3.4 pp |
 Dynamo | 55.2% ± 7.3 (n=174) | +1.6 pp |
 Deadman Danny | 46.3% ± 0.5 (n=39,297) | +1.3 pp |
 Mirage | 44.3% ± 0.5 (n=33,438) | +1.2 pp |
 Graves | 56.6% ± 0.4 (n=74,558) | +1.1 pp |
 Infernus | 47.9% ± 0.3 (n=129,232) | +0.4 pp |
 Seven | 54.7% ± 0.5 (n=38,205) | -0.1 pp |
 Warden | 41.1% ± 2.3 (n=1,703) | -0.5 pp |
 Nurse Harrow | 47.9% ± 1.2 (n=6,352) | -0.8 pp |
 Mina | 48.2% ± 0.5 (n=32,152) | -0.9 pp |
By rank tier
| Tier | Games | Win rate when bought | Purchase rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| All tiers | 473,337 | 49.5% ± 0.1 (n=473,337) | 10.2% (n=4,643,618) |
| 1 Initiate | 35,327 | 50.3% ± 0.5 (n=35,327) | 12.3% (n=286,633) |
| 2 Seeker | 64,235 | 50.2% ± 0.4 (n=64,235) | 11.3% (n=567,145) |
| 3 Acolyte | 58,146 | 50.0% ± 0.4 (n=58,146) | 10.8% (n=538,601) |
| 4 Sentinel | 47,046 | 49.9% ± 0.5 (n=47,046) | 10.3% (n=454,663) |
| 5 Mystic | 42,118 | 50.3% ± 0.5 (n=42,118) | 10.2% (n=412,948) |
| 6 Ritualist | 41,189 | 49.2% ± 0.5 (n=41,189) | 9.9% (n=417,480) |
| 7 Emissary | 38,437 | 49.2% ± 0.5 (n=38,437) | 9.5% (n=403,465) |
| 8 Oracle | 50,211 | 49.0% ± 0.4 (n=50,211) | 9.2% (n=546,368) |
| 9 Phantom | 39,059 | 48.7% ± 0.5 (n=39,059) | 9.0% (n=432,077) |
| 10 Ascendant | 18,581 | 48.6% ± 0.7 (n=18,581) | 8.7% (n=213,670) |
| 11 Eternus | 6,733 | 48.8% ± 1.2 (n=6,733) | 8.6% (n=78,077) |
How we calculate this
In observed win rates, ± shows half the width of the likely range; n is the number of games or appearances counted. Percentage-point differences are labeled pp.
Win rate when bought is observed wins divided by games among buyers, with a 95% likely range. Small samples or wide ranges are withheld. Edge over same-tier items is how much better or worse the buyers did than a model of the game expected just before purchase, compared with the average for same-tier items. These cover all ranks, clean matches, and are computed daily. They are observational, do not establish cause and do not add up to a build win rate. Follow hero links for win rate impact comparisons among that hero's alternatives. Purchase rates use all player appearances in the selection.