Arcane Surge
Patch 2026-09-29.
Win rate by purchase phase
| Phase | Win rate when bought | Edge over same-tier items |
|---|---|---|
| Bought before 10 min | 53.1% ± 0.2 (n=216,252) | +1.7 pp |
| 10–20 min | 50.8% ± 0.2 (n=163,042) | +0.9 pp |
| 20 min or later | 48.8% ± 0.5 (n=38,703) | -0.3 pp |
Edge over same-tier items, by hero
| Hero | Win rate when bought | Edge over same-tier items |
|---|---|---|
 Rat King | 60.3% ± 0.8 (n=16,165) | +3.1 pp |
 The Doorman | 47.3% ± 3.6 (n=733) | +1.8 pp |
 Holliday | 50.8% ± 6.1 (n=252) | +0.8 pp |
 Nurse Harrow | 49.6% ± 0.8 (n=14,254) | +0.7 pp |
 Dynamo | 53.0% ± 0.5 (n=38,257) | +0.6 pp |
 Mirage | 46.2% ± 2.1 (n=2,202) | +0.6 pp |
 Seven | 54.7% ± 0.4 (n=62,275) | +0.3 pp |
 Pocket | 46.8% ± 3.3 (n=880) | +0.2 pp |
 Sinclair | 48.4% ± 1.2 (n=7,218) | +0.2 pp |
 Paradox | 46.3% ± 1.1 (n=7,870) | +0.1 pp |
By rank tier
| Tier | Games | Win rate when bought | Purchase rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| All tiers | 417,997 | 51.8% ± 0.2 (n=417,997) | 9.0% (n=4,643,618) |
| 1 Initiate | 25,880 | 51.9% ± 0.6 (n=25,880) | 9.0% (n=286,633) |
| 2 Seeker | 49,778 | 52.0% ± 0.4 (n=49,778) | 8.8% (n=567,145) |
| 3 Acolyte | 48,294 | 52.4% ± 0.4 (n=48,294) | 9.0% (n=538,601) |
| 4 Sentinel | 42,122 | 52.2% ± 0.5 (n=42,122) | 9.3% (n=454,663) |
| 5 Mystic | 37,882 | 52.4% ± 0.5 (n=37,882) | 9.2% (n=412,948) |
| 6 Ritualist | 38,171 | 52.3% ± 0.5 (n=38,171) | 9.1% (n=417,480) |
| 7 Emissary | 36,857 | 51.6% ± 0.5 (n=36,857) | 9.1% (n=403,465) |
| 8 Oracle | 48,758 | 51.4% ± 0.4 (n=48,758) | 8.9% (n=546,368) |
| 9 Phantom | 39,049 | 51.2% ± 0.5 (n=39,049) | 9.0% (n=432,077) |
| 10 Ascendant | 18,784 | 51.2% ± 0.7 (n=18,784) | 8.8% (n=213,670) |
| 11 Eternus | 5,498 | 50.0% ± 1.3 (n=5,498) | 7.0% (n=78,077) |
How we calculate this
In observed win rates, ± shows half the width of the likely range; n is the number of games or appearances counted. Percentage-point differences are labeled pp.
Win rate when bought is observed wins divided by games among buyers, with a 95% likely range. Small samples or wide ranges are withheld. Edge over same-tier items is how much better or worse the buyers did than a model of the game expected just before purchase, compared with the average for same-tier items. These cover all ranks, clean matches, and are computed daily. They are observational, do not establish cause and do not add up to a build win rate. Follow hero links for win rate impact comparisons among that hero's alternatives. Purchase rates use all player appearances in the selection.