Rebuttal
Patch 2026-09-29.
Win rate by purchase phase
| Phase | Win rate when bought | Edge over same-tier items |
|---|---|---|
| Bought before 10 min | 49.2% ± 0.3 (n=93,733) | -1.0 pp |
| 10–20 min | 46.0% ± 0.5 (n=31,813) | -3.1 pp |
| 20 min or later | 40.9% ± 0.6 (n=22,839) | -5.4 pp |
Edge over same-tier items, by hero
| Hero | Win rate when bought | Edge over same-tier items |
|---|---|---|
 Seven | 54.2% ± 2.3 (n=1,876) | +0.5 pp |
 The Doorman | 46.5% ± 1.9 (n=2,513) | +0.5 pp |
 Viscous | 46.5% ± 2.3 (n=1,867) | -0.3 pp |
 Grey Talon | 43.4% ± 4.0 (n=581) | -0.7 pp |
 Shiv | 43.6% ± 1.2 (n=6,717) | -0.7 pp |
 Infernus | 46.6% ± 1.6 (n=3,809) | -0.7 pp |
 Abrams | 50.2% ± 1.1 (n=7,318) | -0.8 pp |
 Sinclair | 46.5% ± 2.3 (n=1,774) | -1.0 pp |
 Dynamo | 50.2% ± 1.8 (n=3,031) | -1.2 pp |
 Pocket | 43.5% ± 2.7 (n=1,265) | -1.3 pp |
By rank tier
| Tier | Games | Win rate when bought | Purchase rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| All tiers | 148,385 | 47.3% ± 0.3 (n=148,385) | 3.2% (n=4,643,618) |
| 1 Initiate | 8,342 | 47.6% ± 1.1 (n=8,342) | 2.9% (n=286,633) |
| 2 Seeker | 17,150 | 46.7% ± 0.7 (n=17,150) | 3.0% (n=567,145) |
| 3 Acolyte | 16,197 | 47.6% ± 0.8 (n=16,197) | 3.0% (n=538,601) |
| 4 Sentinel | 14,098 | 47.1% ± 0.8 (n=14,098) | 3.1% (n=454,663) |
| 5 Mystic | 12,420 | 47.7% ± 0.9 (n=12,420) | 3.0% (n=412,948) |
| 6 Ritualist | 12,433 | 46.7% ± 0.9 (n=12,433) | 3.0% (n=417,480) |
| 7 Emissary | 12,457 | 47.3% ± 0.9 (n=12,457) | 3.1% (n=403,465) |
| 8 Oracle | 17,520 | 47.6% ± 0.7 (n=17,520) | 3.2% (n=546,368) |
| 9 Phantom | 16,396 | 47.4% ± 0.8 (n=16,396) | 3.8% (n=432,077) |
| 10 Ascendant | 9,495 | 47.3% ± 1.0 (n=9,495) | 4.4% (n=213,670) |
| 11 Eternus | 5,368 | 49.1% ± 1.3 (n=5,368) | 6.9% (n=78,077) |
How we calculate this
In observed win rates, ± shows half the width of the likely range; n is the number of games or appearances counted. Percentage-point differences are labeled pp.
Win rate when bought is observed wins divided by games among buyers, with a 95% likely range. Small samples or wide ranges are withheld. Edge over same-tier items is how much better or worse the buyers did than a model of the game expected just before purchase, compared with the average for same-tier items. These cover all ranks, clean matches, and are computed daily. They are observational, do not establish cause and do not add up to a build win rate. Follow hero links for win rate impact comparisons among that hero's alternatives. Purchase rates use all player appearances in the selection.