Decay
Patch 2026-09-29.
Win rate by purchase phase
| Phase | Win rate when bought | Edge over same-tier items |
|---|---|---|
| Bought before 10 min | 56.1% ± 1.1 (n=7,726) | +5.5 pp |
| 10–20 min | 47.6% ± 0.5 (n=34,969) | -1.5 pp |
| 20 min or later | 41.3% ± 0.6 (n=29,142) | -2.9 pp |
Edge over same-tier items, by hero
| Hero | Win rate when bought | Edge over same-tier items |
|---|---|---|
 Ivy | 55.0% ± 1.0 (n=8,997) | +4.7 pp |
 Vindicta | 51.7% ± 5.2 (n=354) | +4.3 pp |
 Shiv | 44.4% ± 0.7 (n=18,788) | -0.0 pp |
 Apollo | 48.5% ± 4.2 (n=550) | -0.4 pp |
 Infernus | 44.0% ± 6.1 (n=252) | -0.7 pp |
 Violet | 45.1% ± 3.4 (n=816) | -0.7 pp |
 Sinclair | 43.0% ± 3.0 (n=1,010) | -0.8 pp |
 Rem | 43.3% ± 0.9 (n=11,983) | -0.9 pp |
 Nurse Harrow | 46.5% ± 4.2 (n=551) | -0.9 pp |
 Deadman Danny | 36.7% ± 6.3 (n=221) | -1.0 pp |
By rank tier
| Tier | Games | Win rate when bought | Purchase rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| All tiers | 71,837 | 46.0% ± 0.4 (n=71,837) | 1.5% (n=4,643,618) |
| 1 Initiate | 4,031 | 45.0% ± 1.5 (n=4,031) | 1.4% (n=286,633) |
| 2 Seeker | 8,415 | 45.5% ± 1.1 (n=8,415) | 1.5% (n=567,145) |
| 3 Acolyte | 8,106 | 46.3% ± 1.1 (n=8,106) | 1.5% (n=538,601) |
| 4 Sentinel | 7,041 | 47.1% ± 1.2 (n=7,041) | 1.5% (n=454,663) |
| 5 Mystic | 6,491 | 45.9% ± 1.2 (n=6,491) | 1.6% (n=412,948) |
| 6 Ritualist | 6,785 | 46.6% ± 1.2 (n=6,785) | 1.6% (n=417,480) |
| 7 Emissary | 6,910 | 45.3% ± 1.2 (n=6,910) | 1.7% (n=403,465) |
| 8 Oracle | 9,005 | 46.2% ± 1.0 (n=9,005) | 1.6% (n=546,368) |
| 9 Phantom | 7,143 | 45.7% ± 1.2 (n=7,143) | 1.7% (n=432,077) |
| 10 Ascendant | 3,254 | 45.9% ± 1.7 (n=3,254) | 1.5% (n=213,670) |
| 11 Eternus | 922 | 46.5% ± 3.2 (n=922) | 1.2% (n=78,077) |
How we calculate this
In observed win rates, ± shows half the width of the likely range; n is the number of games or appearances counted. Percentage-point differences are labeled pp.
Win rate when bought is observed wins divided by games among buyers, with a 95% likely range. Small samples or wide ranges are withheld. Edge over same-tier items is how much better or worse the buyers did than a model of the game expected just before purchase, compared with the average for same-tier items. These cover all ranks, clean matches, and are computed daily. They are observational, do not establish cause and do not add up to a build win rate. Follow hero links for win rate impact comparisons among that hero's alternatives. Purchase rates use all player appearances in the selection.