Mystic Shot
Patch 2026-09-29.
Win rate by purchase phase
| Phase | Win rate when bought | Edge over same-tier items |
|---|---|---|
| Bought before 10 min | 50.6% ± 0.2 (n=216,600) | +0.1 pp |
| 10–20 min | 48.8% ± 0.2 (n=233,573) | -0.5 pp |
| 20 min or later | 46.2% ± 0.5 (n=41,065) | -2.3 pp |
Edge over same-tier items, by hero
| Hero | Win rate when bought | Edge over same-tier items |
|---|---|---|
 Abrams | 53.5% ± 1.9 (n=2,625) | +2.8 pp |
 Sinclair | 49.1% ± 5.9 (n=271) | +2.7 pp |
 Ivy | 58.8% ± 9.6 (n=97) | +2.6 pp |
 Pocket | 47.8% ± 1.0 (n=9,176) | +2.0 pp |
 Graves | 56.6% ± 0.4 (n=76,976) | +1.7 pp |
 Calico | 51.0% ± 0.7 (n=17,360) | +1.3 pp |
 Violet | 48.7% ± 0.5 (n=41,909) | +0.8 pp |
 The Doorman | 46.4% ± 1.3 (n=6,023) | +0.6 pp |
 Holliday | 49.1% ± 0.7 (n=20,115) | +0.6 pp |
 Drifter | 49.5% ± 1.3 (n=5,337) | +0.5 pp |
By rank tier
| Tier | Games | Win rate when bought | Purchase rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| All tiers | 491,238 | 49.4% ± 0.1 (n=491,238) | 10.6% (n=4,643,618) |
| 1 Initiate | 28,511 | 49.5% ± 0.6 (n=28,511) | 9.9% (n=286,633) |
| 2 Seeker | 57,774 | 49.9% ± 0.4 (n=57,774) | 10.2% (n=567,145) |
| 3 Acolyte | 56,351 | 49.7% ± 0.4 (n=56,351) | 10.5% (n=538,601) |
| 4 Sentinel | 47,210 | 49.7% ± 0.5 (n=47,210) | 10.4% (n=454,663) |
| 5 Mystic | 44,091 | 49.9% ± 0.5 (n=44,091) | 10.7% (n=412,948) |
| 6 Ritualist | 43,884 | 49.3% ± 0.5 (n=43,884) | 10.5% (n=417,480) |
| 7 Emissary | 43,203 | 49.1% ± 0.5 (n=43,203) | 10.7% (n=403,465) |
| 8 Oracle | 60,619 | 48.8% ± 0.4 (n=60,619) | 11.1% (n=546,368) |
| 9 Phantom | 47,564 | 49.4% ± 0.4 (n=47,564) | 11.0% (n=432,077) |
| 10 Ascendant | 22,223 | 49.1% ± 0.7 (n=22,223) | 10.4% (n=213,670) |
| 11 Eternus | 8,177 | 49.7% ± 1.1 (n=8,177) | 10.5% (n=78,077) |
How we calculate this
In observed win rates, ± shows half the width of the likely range; n is the number of games or appearances counted. Percentage-point differences are labeled pp.
Win rate when bought is observed wins divided by games among buyers, with a 95% likely range. Small samples or wide ranges are withheld. Edge over same-tier items is how much better or worse the buyers did than a model of the game expected just before purchase, compared with the average for same-tier items. These cover all ranks, clean matches, and are computed daily. They are observational, do not establish cause and do not add up to a build win rate. Follow hero links for win rate impact comparisons among that hero's alternatives. Purchase rates use all player appearances in the selection.