Mystic Expansion
Patch 2026-09-29.
Win rate by purchase phase
| Phase | Win rate when bought | Edge over same-tier items |
|---|---|---|
| Bought before 10 min | 50.6% ± 0.1 (n=746,212) | +0.1 pp |
| 10–20 min | 51.2% ± 0.1 (n=687,029) | +0.6 pp |
| 20 min or later | 50.3% ± 0.2 (n=274,289) | -0.1 pp |
Edge over same-tier items, by hero
| Hero | Win rate when bought | Edge over same-tier items |
|---|---|---|
 McGinnis | 49.2% ± 0.6 (n=29,642) | +1.7 pp |
 Lady Geist | 50.1% ± 0.4 (n=61,999) | +1.5 pp |
 Paradox | 46.5% ± 0.8 (n=13,679) | +1.5 pp |
 Calico | 54.5% ± 4.8 (n=402) | +1.1 pp |
 Celeste | 51.4% ± 0.4 (n=62,826) | +0.9 pp |
 Baba | 54.6% ± 0.4 (n=48,377) | +0.8 pp |
 Kelvin | 56.3% ± 0.5 (n=45,785) | +0.8 pp |
 Deadman Danny | 43.7% ± 0.3 (n=89,280) | +0.5 pp |
 Nurse Harrow | 50.0% ± 0.8 (n=13,865) | +0.5 pp |
 Viscous | 47.1% ± 0.5 (n=37,608) | +0.5 pp |
By rank tier
| Tier | Games | Win rate when bought | Purchase rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| All tiers | 1,707,532 | 50.8% ± 0.1 (n=1,707,532) | 36.8% (n=4,643,618) |
| 1 Initiate | 112,379 | 50.7% ± 0.3 (n=112,379) | 39.2% (n=286,633) |
| 2 Seeker | 221,214 | 51.4% ± 0.2 (n=221,214) | 39.0% (n=567,145) |
| 3 Acolyte | 203,818 | 51.2% ± 0.2 (n=203,818) | 37.8% (n=538,601) |
| 4 Sentinel | 171,844 | 51.2% ± 0.2 (n=171,844) | 37.8% (n=454,663) |
| 5 Mystic | 153,551 | 51.2% ± 0.3 (n=153,551) | 37.2% (n=412,948) |
| 6 Ritualist | 153,189 | 50.9% ± 0.3 (n=153,189) | 36.7% (n=417,480) |
| 7 Emissary | 144,805 | 50.9% ± 0.3 (n=144,805) | 35.9% (n=403,465) |
| 8 Oracle | 189,769 | 50.6% ± 0.2 (n=189,769) | 34.7% (n=546,368) |
| 9 Phantom | 148,168 | 50.4% ± 0.3 (n=148,168) | 34.3% (n=432,077) |
| 10 Ascendant | 72,348 | 50.7% ± 0.4 (n=72,348) | 33.9% (n=213,670) |
| 11 Eternus | 25,811 | 49.6% ± 0.6 (n=25,811) | 33.1% (n=78,077) |
How we calculate this
In observed win rates, ± shows half the width of the likely range; n is the number of games or appearances counted. Percentage-point differences are labeled pp.
Win rate when bought is observed wins divided by games among buyers, with a 95% likely range. Small samples or wide ranges are withheld. Edge over same-tier items is how much better or worse the buyers did than a model of the game expected just before purchase, compared with the average for same-tier items. These cover all ranks, clean matches, and are computed daily. They are observational, do not establish cause and do not add up to a build win rate. Follow hero links for win rate impact comparisons among that hero's alternatives. Purchase rates use all player appearances in the selection.