Lightning Scroll
Patch 2026-09-29.
Win rate by purchase phase
| Phase | Win rate when bought | Edge over same-tier items |
|---|---|---|
| Bought before 10 min | insufficient data (n=21) | — |
| 10–20 min | 54.3% ± 1.4 (n=4,844) | -0.6 pp |
| 20 min or later | 55.0% ± 0.3 (n=116,988) | +0.1 pp |
Edge over same-tier items, by hero
| Hero | Win rate when bought | Edge over same-tier items |
|---|---|---|
 Silver | 60.8% ± 5.5 (n=301) | +3.8 pp |
 Nurse Harrow | 56.2% ± 3.2 (n=938) | +1.6 pp |
 Seven | 59.2% ± 0.7 (n=20,782) | +0.9 pp |
 Violet | 55.5% ± 2.6 (n=1,415) | +0.3 pp |
 Solomon | 50.6% ± 0.7 (n=17,402) | +0.3 pp |
 Paradox | 54.7% ± 4.6 (n=439) | +0.2 pp |
 Rat King | 60.5% ± 2.8 (n=1,187) | +0.2 pp |
 Ivy | 58.0% ± 0.7 (n=20,991) | -0.1 pp |
 McGinnis | 52.1% ± 0.9 (n=11,190) | -0.1 pp |
 Sinclair | 54.8% ± 1.5 (n=4,098) | -0.3 pp |
By rank tier
| Tier | Games | Win rate when bought | Purchase rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| All tiers | 121,855 | 55.0% ± 0.3 (n=121,855) | 2.6% (n=4,643,618) |
| 1 Initiate | 11,288 | 54.3% ± 0.9 (n=11,288) | 3.9% (n=286,633) |
| 2 Seeker | 21,295 | 55.7% ± 0.7 (n=21,295) | 3.8% (n=567,145) |
| 3 Acolyte | 17,592 | 55.1% ± 0.7 (n=17,592) | 3.3% (n=538,601) |
| 4 Sentinel | 13,347 | 55.2% ± 0.8 (n=13,347) | 2.9% (n=454,663) |
| 5 Mystic | 11,388 | 54.9% ± 0.9 (n=11,388) | 2.8% (n=412,948) |
| 6 Ritualist | 10,667 | 55.0% ± 0.9 (n=10,667) | 2.6% (n=417,480) |
| 7 Emissary | 9,206 | 54.7% ± 1.0 (n=9,206) | 2.3% (n=403,465) |
| 8 Oracle | 10,036 | 54.5% ± 1.0 (n=10,036) | 1.8% (n=546,368) |
| 9 Phantom | 6,671 | 56.0% ± 1.2 (n=6,671) | 1.5% (n=432,077) |
| 10 Ascendant | 2,162 | 53.5% ± 2.1 (n=2,162) | 1.0% (n=213,670) |
| 11 Eternus | 377 | 54.4% ± 5.0 (n=377) | 0.5% (n=78,077) |
How we calculate this
In observed win rates, ± shows half the width of the likely range; n is the number of games or appearances counted. Percentage-point differences are labeled pp.
Win rate when bought is observed wins divided by games among buyers, with a 95% likely range. Small samples or wide ranges are withheld. Edge over same-tier items is how much better or worse the buyers did than a model of the game expected just before purchase, compared with the average for same-tier items. These cover all ranks, clean matches, and are computed daily. They are observational, do not establish cause and do not add up to a build win rate. Follow hero links for win rate impact comparisons among that hero's alternatives. Purchase rates use all player appearances in the selection.