Greater Expansion
Patch 2026-09-29.
Win rate by purchase phase
| Phase | Win rate when bought | Edge over same-tier items |
|---|---|---|
| Bought before 10 min | 50.8% ± 1.3 (n=5,623) | -3.6 pp |
| 10–20 min | 54.1% ± 0.2 (n=274,973) | -0.0 pp |
| 20 min or later | 51.8% ± 0.1 (n=1,063,013) | +0.7 pp |
Edge over same-tier items, by hero
| Hero | Win rate when bought | Edge over same-tier items |
|---|---|---|
 Rat King | 60.3% ± 0.6 (n=29,613) | +2.0 pp |
 McGinnis | 51.2% ± 0.7 (n=22,349) | +1.8 pp |
 Paradox | 48.6% ± 0.9 (n=11,419) | +1.4 pp |
 Nurse Harrow | 50.9% ± 0.9 (n=11,071) | +1.3 pp |
 Infernus | 52.0% ± 1.7 (n=3,208) | +1.1 pp |
 Venator | 51.5% ± 2.5 (n=1,481) | +1.1 pp |
 Seven | 56.5% ± 0.4 (n=53,070) | +0.9 pp |
 Pocket | 49.3% ± 0.4 (n=57,284) | +0.9 pp |
 Baba | 56.9% ± 0.4 (n=53,818) | +0.8 pp |
 Lady Geist | 52.3% ± 0.5 (n=42,394) | +0.7 pp |
By rank tier
| Tier | Games | Win rate when bought | Purchase rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| All tiers | 1,343,613 | 52.3% ± 0.1 (n=1,343,613) | 28.9% (n=4,643,618) |
| 1 Initiate | 94,180 | 52.0% ± 0.3 (n=94,180) | 32.9% (n=286,633) |
| 2 Seeker | 185,977 | 52.5% ± 0.2 (n=185,977) | 32.8% (n=567,145) |
| 3 Acolyte | 168,366 | 52.5% ± 0.2 (n=168,366) | 31.3% (n=538,601) |
| 4 Sentinel | 138,581 | 52.4% ± 0.3 (n=138,581) | 30.5% (n=454,663) |
| 5 Mystic | 122,085 | 52.3% ± 0.3 (n=122,085) | 29.6% (n=412,948) |
| 6 Ritualist | 120,614 | 52.2% ± 0.3 (n=120,614) | 28.9% (n=417,480) |
| 7 Emissary | 111,366 | 52.3% ± 0.3 (n=111,366) | 27.6% (n=403,465) |
| 8 Oracle | 141,099 | 52.2% ± 0.3 (n=141,099) | 25.8% (n=546,368) |
| 9 Phantom | 105,017 | 52.6% ± 0.3 (n=105,017) | 24.3% (n=432,077) |
| 10 Ascendant | 48,042 | 53.5% ± 0.4 (n=48,042) | 22.5% (n=213,670) |
| 11 Eternus | 16,230 | 53.3% ± 0.8 (n=16,230) | 20.8% (n=78,077) |
How we calculate this
In observed win rates, ± shows half the width of the likely range; n is the number of games or appearances counted. Percentage-point differences are labeled pp.
Win rate when bought is observed wins divided by games among buyers, with a 95% likely range. Small samples or wide ranges are withheld. Edge over same-tier items is how much better or worse the buyers did than a model of the game expected just before purchase, compared with the average for same-tier items. These cover all ranks, clean matches, and are computed daily. They are observational, do not establish cause and do not add up to a build win rate. Follow hero links for win rate impact comparisons among that hero's alternatives. Purchase rates use all player appearances in the selection.