Golden Goose Egg
Patch 2026-09-29.
Win rate by purchase phase
| Phase | Win rate when bought | Edge over same-tier items |
|---|---|---|
| Bought before 10 min | 48.1% ± 0.3 (n=81,835) | -2.0 pp |
| 10–20 min | 38.6% ± 1.6 (n=3,392) | -6.7 pp |
| 20 min or later | 38.2% ± 2.3 (n=1,787) | -6.0 pp |
Edge over same-tier items, by hero
| Hero | Win rate when bought | Edge over same-tier items |
|---|---|---|
 Ivy | 54.7% ± 1.1 (n=8,374) | +1.1 pp |
 Shiv | 45.1% ± 4.0 (n=581) | +0.9 pp |
 Dynamo | 50.8% ± 1.4 (n=5,264) | -1.0 pp |
 Sinclair | 45.4% ± 3.5 (n=778) | -1.5 pp |
 Calico | 46.3% ± 6.2 (n=246) | -1.5 pp |
 Haze | 51.8% ± 1.0 (n=8,710) | -1.6 pp |
 Kelvin | 52.3% ± 1.9 (n=2,786) | -1.8 pp |
 Vindicta | 47.1% ± 4.2 (n=548) | -2.0 pp |
 Paige | 52.9% ± 1.3 (n=5,445) | -2.1 pp |
 Nurse Harrow | 46.7% ± 3.2 (n=930) | -2.3 pp |
By rank tier
| Tier | Games | Win rate when bought | Purchase rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| All tiers | 87,015 | 47.6% ± 0.3 (n=87,015) | 1.9% (n=4,643,618) |
| 1 Initiate | 8,506 | 47.0% ± 1.1 (n=8,506) | 3.0% (n=286,633) |
| 2 Seeker | 13,937 | 48.1% ± 0.8 (n=13,937) | 2.5% (n=567,145) |
| 3 Acolyte | 11,607 | 47.3% ± 0.9 (n=11,607) | 2.2% (n=538,601) |
| 4 Sentinel | 8,875 | 47.9% ± 1.0 (n=8,875) | 2.0% (n=454,663) |
| 5 Mystic | 8,053 | 47.9% ± 1.1 (n=8,053) | 2.0% (n=412,948) |
| 6 Ritualist | 7,132 | 47.8% ± 1.2 (n=7,132) | 1.7% (n=417,480) |
| 7 Emissary | 6,881 | 47.8% ± 1.2 (n=6,881) | 1.7% (n=403,465) |
| 8 Oracle | 7,680 | 46.8% ± 1.1 (n=7,680) | 1.4% (n=546,368) |
| 9 Phantom | 5,038 | 48.5% ± 1.4 (n=5,038) | 1.2% (n=432,077) |
| 10 Ascendant | 2,031 | 47.9% ± 2.2 (n=2,031) | 1.0% (n=213,670) |
| 11 Eternus | 663 | 50.4% ± 3.8 (n=663) | 0.8% (n=78,077) |
How we calculate this
In observed win rates, ± shows half the width of the likely range; n is the number of games or appearances counted. Percentage-point differences are labeled pp.
Win rate when bought is observed wins divided by games among buyers, with a 95% likely range. Small samples or wide ranges are withheld. Edge over same-tier items is how much better or worse the buyers did than a model of the game expected just before purchase, compared with the average for same-tier items. These cover all ranks, clean matches, and are computed daily. They are observational, do not establish cause and do not add up to a build win rate. Follow hero links for win rate impact comparisons among that hero's alternatives. Purchase rates use all player appearances in the selection.