Ethereal Shift
Patch 2026-09-29.
Win rate by purchase phase
| Phase | Win rate when bought | Edge over same-tier items |
|---|---|---|
| Bought before 10 min | insufficient data (n=1) | — |
| 10–20 min | 60.4% ± 3.5 (n=753) | -0.6 pp |
| 20 min or later | 58.4% ± 0.3 (n=111,811) | -0.2 pp |
Edge over same-tier items, by hero
| Hero | Win rate when bought | Edge over same-tier items |
|---|---|---|
 Silver | 60.3% ± 4.4 (n=464) | +3.2 pp |
 McGinnis | 56.2% ± 5.1 (n=363) | +2.2 pp |
 Lash | 58.8% ± 5.9 (n=262) | +2.0 pp |
 Mina | 58.8% ± 0.6 (n=23,452) | +1.9 pp |
 Shiv | 55.5% ± 0.8 (n=15,362) | +1.7 pp |
 Mirage | 54.6% ± 6.1 (n=249) | +1.7 pp |
 Sinclair | 60.6% ± 7.9 (n=142) | +1.6 pp |
 Pocket | 56.7% ± 0.8 (n=15,198) | +1.1 pp |
 Celeste | 59.4% ± 1.2 (n=6,084) | +1.0 pp |
 Paradox | 58.2% ± 3.7 (n=677) | +0.8 pp |
By rank tier
| Tier | Games | Win rate when bought | Purchase rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| All tiers | 112,565 | 58.4% ± 0.3 (n=112,565) | 2.4% (n=4,643,618) |
| 1 Initiate | 4,300 | 57.8% ± 1.5 (n=4,300) | 1.5% (n=286,633) |
| 2 Seeker | 10,698 | 58.9% ± 0.9 (n=10,698) | 1.9% (n=567,145) |
| 3 Acolyte | 11,755 | 57.8% ± 0.9 (n=11,755) | 2.2% (n=538,601) |
| 4 Sentinel | 10,364 | 58.4% ± 0.9 (n=10,364) | 2.3% (n=454,663) |
| 5 Mystic | 10,131 | 58.4% ± 1.0 (n=10,131) | 2.5% (n=412,948) |
| 6 Ritualist | 11,119 | 57.9% ± 0.9 (n=11,119) | 2.7% (n=417,480) |
| 7 Emissary | 11,380 | 58.6% ± 0.9 (n=11,380) | 2.8% (n=403,465) |
| 8 Oracle | 16,207 | 58.7% ± 0.8 (n=16,207) | 3.0% (n=546,368) |
| 9 Phantom | 12,754 | 58.5% ± 0.9 (n=12,754) | 3.0% (n=432,077) |
| 10 Ascendant | 6,110 | 60.9% ± 1.2 (n=6,110) | 2.9% (n=213,670) |
| 11 Eternus | 1,952 | 59.6% ± 2.2 (n=1,952) | 2.5% (n=78,077) |
How we calculate this
In observed win rates, ± shows half the width of the likely range; n is the number of games or appearances counted. Percentage-point differences are labeled pp.
Win rate when bought is observed wins divided by games among buyers, with a 95% likely range. Small samples or wide ranges are withheld. Edge over same-tier items is how much better or worse the buyers did than a model of the game expected just before purchase, compared with the average for same-tier items. These cover all ranks, clean matches, and are computed daily. They are observational, do not establish cause and do not add up to a build win rate. Follow hero links for win rate impact comparisons among that hero's alternatives. Purchase rates use all player appearances in the selection.