Escalating Exposure
Patch 2026-09-29.
Win rate by purchase phase
| Phase | Win rate when bought | Edge over same-tier items |
|---|---|---|
| Bought before 10 min | 67.9% ± 8.8 (n=106) | +8.0 pp |
| 10–20 min | 60.8% ± 0.3 (n=76,180) | +2.1 pp |
| 20 min or later | 55.1% ± 0.1 (n=801,778) | +0.5 pp |
Edge over same-tier items, by hero
| Hero | Win rate when bought | Edge over same-tier items |
|---|---|---|
 Mo & Krill | 59.7% ± 0.5 (n=37,158) | +2.4 pp |
 Billy | 60.2% ± 6.6 (n=206) | +2.3 pp |
 McGinnis | 51.6% ± 0.6 (n=28,890) | +2.1 pp |
 Deadman Danny | 54.5% ± 1.3 (n=5,957) | +1.8 pp |
 Seven | 56.0% ± 0.3 (n=108,766) | +1.7 pp |
 Nurse Harrow | 54.0% ± 2.0 (n=2,330) | +1.6 pp |
 Kelvin | 58.5% ± 0.5 (n=44,999) | +1.6 pp |
 Vyper | 59.9% ± 5.7 (n=279) | +1.5 pp |
 Violet | 58.0% ± 0.6 (n=22,288) | +1.4 pp |
 Lady Geist | 54.9% ± 0.5 (n=41,927) | +1.3 pp |
By rank tier
| Tier | Games | Win rate when bought | Purchase rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| All tiers | 878,066 | 55.6% ± 0.1 (n=878,066) | 18.9% (n=4,643,618) |
| 1 Initiate | 67,664 | 55.7% ± 0.4 (n=67,664) | 23.6% (n=286,633) |
| 2 Seeker | 132,492 | 56.0% ± 0.3 (n=132,492) | 23.4% (n=567,145) |
| 3 Acolyte | 117,177 | 56.0% ± 0.3 (n=117,177) | 21.8% (n=538,601) |
| 4 Sentinel | 93,273 | 55.8% ± 0.3 (n=93,273) | 20.5% (n=454,663) |
| 5 Mystic | 79,820 | 55.6% ± 0.3 (n=79,820) | 19.3% (n=412,948) |
| 6 Ritualist | 75,950 | 55.4% ± 0.4 (n=75,950) | 18.2% (n=417,480) |
| 7 Emissary | 69,893 | 55.5% ± 0.4 (n=69,893) | 17.3% (n=403,465) |
| 8 Oracle | 83,991 | 55.5% ± 0.3 (n=83,991) | 15.4% (n=546,368) |
| 9 Phantom | 59,853 | 56.2% ± 0.4 (n=59,853) | 13.9% (n=432,077) |
| 10 Ascendant | 26,745 | 56.0% ± 0.6 (n=26,745) | 12.5% (n=213,670) |
| 11 Eternus | 7,615 | 57.7% ± 1.1 (n=7,615) | 9.8% (n=78,077) |
How we calculate this
In observed win rates, ± shows half the width of the likely range; n is the number of games or appearances counted. Percentage-point differences are labeled pp.
Win rate when bought is observed wins divided by games among buyers, with a 95% likely range. Small samples or wide ranges are withheld. Edge over same-tier items is how much better or worse the buyers did than a model of the game expected just before purchase, compared with the average for same-tier items. These cover all ranks, clean matches, and are computed daily. They are observational, do not establish cause and do not add up to a build win rate. Follow hero links for win rate impact comparisons among that hero's alternatives. Purchase rates use all player appearances in the selection.