Alchemical Fire
Patch 2026-09-29.
Win rate by purchase phase
| Phase | Win rate when bought | Edge over same-tier items |
|---|---|---|
| Bought before 10 min | 56.9% ± 2.1 (n=2,066) | +2.2 pp |
| 10–20 min | 53.0% ± 0.5 (n=36,568) | +1.5 pp |
| 20 min or later | 50.9% ± 0.5 (n=43,806) | +1.3 pp |
Edge over same-tier items, by hero
| Hero | Win rate when bought | Edge over same-tier items |
|---|---|---|
 Paradox | 47.1% ± 1.4 (n=4,822) | +2.4 pp |
 Ivy | 55.6% ± 0.8 (n=14,205) | +2.0 pp |
 Solomon | 46.4% ± 1.8 (n=3,015) | +1.6 pp |
 Paige | 56.6% ± 0.8 (n=13,768) | +1.4 pp |
 Sinclair | 48.3% ± 1.0 (n=9,586) | +1.0 pp |
 Mo & Krill | 50.0% ± 2.6 (n=1,431) | +0.7 pp |
 Rem | 46.7% ± 1.9 (n=2,545) | +0.7 pp |
 Dynamo | 52.9% ± 5.0 (n=382) | +0.6 pp |
 Holliday | 51.4% ± 1.2 (n=6,792) | +0.6 pp |
 Violet | 50.6% ± 3.3 (n=882) | +0.3 pp |
By rank tier
| Tier | Games | Win rate when bought | Purchase rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| All tiers | 82,440 | 52.0% ± 0.3 (n=82,440) | 1.8% (n=4,643,618) |
| 1 Initiate | 3,952 | 50.1% ± 1.6 (n=3,952) | 1.4% (n=286,633) |
| 2 Seeker | 8,626 | 50.4% ± 1.1 (n=8,626) | 1.5% (n=567,145) |
| 3 Acolyte | 8,070 | 52.3% ± 1.1 (n=8,070) | 1.5% (n=538,601) |
| 4 Sentinel | 7,649 | 52.6% ± 1.1 (n=7,649) | 1.7% (n=454,663) |
| 5 Mystic | 7,094 | 52.3% ± 1.2 (n=7,094) | 1.7% (n=412,948) |
| 6 Ritualist | 7,199 | 51.8% ± 1.2 (n=7,199) | 1.7% (n=417,480) |
| 7 Emissary | 7,371 | 52.7% ± 1.1 (n=7,371) | 1.8% (n=403,465) |
| 8 Oracle | 10,996 | 52.5% ± 0.9 (n=10,996) | 2.0% (n=546,368) |
| 9 Phantom | 9,362 | 52.5% ± 1.0 (n=9,362) | 2.2% (n=432,077) |
| 10 Ascendant | 5,361 | 52.4% ± 1.3 (n=5,361) | 2.5% (n=213,670) |
| 11 Eternus | 2,412 | 51.9% ± 2.0 (n=2,412) | 3.1% (n=78,077) |
How we calculate this
In observed win rates, ± shows half the width of the likely range; n is the number of games or appearances counted. Percentage-point differences are labeled pp.
Win rate when bought is observed wins divided by games among buyers, with a 95% likely range. Small samples or wide ranges are withheld. Edge over same-tier items is how much better or worse the buyers did than a model of the game expected just before purchase, compared with the average for same-tier items. These cover all ranks, clean matches, and are computed daily. They are observational, do not establish cause and do not add up to a build win rate. Follow hero links for win rate impact comparisons among that hero's alternatives. Purchase rates use all player appearances in the selection.