Witchmail
Patch 2026-09-29.
Win rate by purchase phase
| Phase | Win rate when bought | Edge over same-tier items |
|---|---|---|
| Bought before 10 min | insufficient data (n=8) | — |
| 10–20 min | 61.8% ± 1.0 (n=9,758) | +1.8 pp |
| 20 min or later | 58.0% ± 0.2 (n=300,886) | +2.0 pp |
Edge over same-tier items, by hero
| Hero | Win rate when bought | Edge over same-tier items |
|---|---|---|
 Baba | 62.5% ± 1.3 (n=5,259) | +4.3 pp |
 Vyper | 61.7% ± 9.1 (n=107) | +3.9 pp |
 Vindicta | 57.4% ± 8.2 (n=136) | +3.5 pp |
 Nurse Harrow | 60.2% ± 8.4 (n=128) | +3.3 pp |
 Dynamo | 62.4% ± 1.3 (n=5,753) | +3.0 pp |
 Lady Geist | 57.6% ± 1.4 (n=4,710) | +3.0 pp |
 McGinnis | 57.9% ± 3.2 (n=904) | +2.9 pp |
 Apollo | 60.8% ± 0.9 (n=10,157) | +2.6 pp |
 Celeste | 56.0% ± 0.5 (n=43,958) | +2.6 pp |
 Kelvin | 65.5% ± 1.5 (n=3,882) | +2.3 pp |
By rank tier
| Tier | Games | Win rate when bought | Purchase rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| All tiers | 310,656 | 58.1% ± 0.2 (n=310,656) | 6.7% (n=4,643,618) |
| 1 Initiate | 19,160 | 57.0% ± 0.7 (n=19,160) | 6.7% (n=286,633) |
| 2 Seeker | 43,496 | 57.6% ± 0.5 (n=43,496) | 7.7% (n=567,145) |
| 3 Acolyte | 40,951 | 57.7% ± 0.5 (n=40,951) | 7.6% (n=538,601) |
| 4 Sentinel | 34,653 | 58.0% ± 0.5 (n=34,653) | 7.6% (n=454,663) |
| 5 Mystic | 30,442 | 58.3% ± 0.6 (n=30,442) | 7.4% (n=412,948) |
| 6 Ritualist | 29,777 | 58.6% ± 0.6 (n=29,777) | 7.1% (n=417,480) |
| 7 Emissary | 27,692 | 58.5% ± 0.6 (n=27,692) | 6.9% (n=403,465) |
| 8 Oracle | 32,338 | 58.8% ± 0.5 (n=32,338) | 5.9% (n=546,368) |
| 9 Phantom | 22,033 | 59.4% ± 0.6 (n=22,033) | 5.1% (n=432,077) |
| 10 Ascendant | 8,892 | 60.0% ± 1.0 (n=8,892) | 4.2% (n=213,670) |
| 11 Eternus | 2,276 | 61.9% ± 2.0 (n=2,276) | 2.9% (n=78,077) |
How we calculate this
In observed win rates, ± shows half the width of the likely range; n is the number of games or appearances counted. Percentage-point differences are labeled pp.
Win rate when bought is observed wins divided by games among buyers, with a 95% likely range. Small samples or wide ranges are withheld. Edge over same-tier items is how much better or worse the buyers did than a model of the game expected just before purchase, compared with the average for same-tier items. These cover all ranks, clean matches, and are computed daily. They are observational, do not establish cause and do not add up to a build win rate. Follow hero links for win rate impact comparisons among that hero's alternatives. Purchase rates use all player appearances in the selection.