Rusted Barrel
Patch 2026-09-29.
Win rate by purchase phase
| Phase | Win rate when bought | Edge over same-tier items |
|---|---|---|
| Bought before 10 min | 48.3% ± 0.4 (n=51,319) | -1.8 pp |
| 10–20 min | 42.2% ± 0.7 (n=22,083) | -5.0 pp |
| 20 min or later | 37.1% ± 0.6 (n=21,246) | -7.3 pp |
Edge over same-tier items, by hero
| Hero | Win rate when bought | Edge over same-tier items |
|---|---|---|
 Mirage | 42.5% ± 2.8 (n=1,187) | +0.2 pp |
 Haze | 52.9% ± 1.4 (n=4,890) | -0.2 pp |
 Violet | 46.5% ± 1.0 (n=9,311) | -0.9 pp |
 Pocket | 39.2% ± 4.2 (n=505) | -2.5 pp |
 Ivy | 50.1% ± 1.1 (n=8,650) | -2.6 pp |
 Deadman Danny | 36.9% ± 3.7 (n=666) | -3.0 pp |
 Rem | 42.3% ± 1.0 (n=9,653) | -3.3 pp |
 Graves | 49.7% ± 1.7 (n=3,253) | -3.9 pp |
 Paradox | 39.1% ± 1.9 (n=2,422) | -3.9 pp |
 Dynamo | 46.1% ± 1.7 (n=3,205) | -4.0 pp |
By rank tier
| Tier | Games | Win rate when bought | Purchase rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| All tiers | 94,648 | 44.3% ± 0.3 (n=94,648) | 2.0% (n=4,643,618) |
| 1 Initiate | 5,242 | 43.4% ± 1.3 (n=5,242) | 1.8% (n=286,633) |
| 2 Seeker | 11,091 | 43.6% ± 0.9 (n=11,091) | 2.0% (n=567,145) |
| 3 Acolyte | 11,201 | 44.1% ± 0.9 (n=11,201) | 2.1% (n=538,601) |
| 4 Sentinel | 9,273 | 44.4% ± 1.0 (n=9,273) | 2.0% (n=454,663) |
| 5 Mystic | 8,479 | 43.6% ± 1.1 (n=8,479) | 2.1% (n=412,948) |
| 6 Ritualist | 8,651 | 43.3% ± 1.0 (n=8,651) | 2.1% (n=417,480) |
| 7 Emissary | 8,435 | 44.6% ± 1.1 (n=8,435) | 2.1% (n=403,465) |
| 8 Oracle | 11,236 | 45.0% ± 0.9 (n=11,236) | 2.1% (n=546,368) |
| 9 Phantom | 9,374 | 45.7% ± 1.0 (n=9,374) | 2.2% (n=432,077) |
| 10 Ascendant | 4,696 | 46.7% ± 1.4 (n=4,696) | 2.2% (n=213,670) |
| 11 Eternus | 2,123 | 47.9% ± 2.1 (n=2,123) | 2.7% (n=78,077) |
How we calculate this
In observed win rates, ± shows half the width of the likely range; n is the number of games or appearances counted. Percentage-point differences are labeled pp.
Win rate when bought is observed wins divided by games among buyers, with a 95% likely range. Small samples or wide ranges are withheld. Edge over same-tier items is how much better or worse the buyers did than a model of the game expected just before purchase, compared with the average for same-tier items. These cover all ranks, clean matches, and are computed daily. They are observational, do not establish cause and do not add up to a build win rate. Follow hero links for win rate impact comparisons among that hero's alternatives. Purchase rates use all player appearances in the selection.