Mercurial Magnum
Patch 2026-09-29.
Win rate by purchase phase
| Phase | Win rate when bought | Edge over same-tier items |
|---|---|---|
| Bought before 10 min | insufficient data (n=42) | — |
| 10–20 min | 58.8% ± 0.4 (n=56,788) | +0.2 pp |
| 20 min or later | 53.3% ± 0.2 (n=329,183) | -0.4 pp |
Edge over same-tier items, by hero
| Hero | Win rate when bought | Edge over same-tier items |
|---|---|---|
 Dynamo | 58.2% ± 2.1 (n=2,041) | +2.6 pp |
 Holliday | 55.1% ± 1.5 (n=4,496) | +1.1 pp |
 Vyper | 53.7% ± 0.5 (n=38,843) | +1.0 pp |
 Violet | 57.8% ± 1.7 (n=3,382) | +1.0 pp |
 Wraith | 55.1% ± 0.3 (n=127,307) | +0.4 pp |
 Grey Talon | 54.1% ± 2.3 (n=1,792) | -0.2 pp |
 Warden | 45.3% ± 0.6 (n=28,204) | -0.2 pp |
 Lady Geist | 53.7% ± 1.8 (n=3,071) | -0.3 pp |
 Sinclair | 54.9% ± 3.6 (n=741) | -0.3 pp |
 Vindicta | 54.8% ± 0.5 (n=45,119) | -0.7 pp |
By rank tier
| Tier | Games | Win rate when bought | Purchase rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| All tiers | 386,014 | 54.1% ± 0.2 (n=386,014) | 8.3% (n=4,643,618) |
| 1 Initiate | 30,322 | 53.9% ± 0.6 (n=30,322) | 10.6% (n=286,633) |
| 2 Seeker | 56,865 | 53.5% ± 0.4 (n=56,865) | 10.0% (n=567,145) |
| 3 Acolyte | 49,697 | 54.0% ± 0.4 (n=49,697) | 9.2% (n=538,601) |
| 4 Sentinel | 39,153 | 54.1% ± 0.5 (n=39,153) | 8.6% (n=454,663) |
| 5 Mystic | 33,329 | 54.7% ± 0.5 (n=33,329) | 8.1% (n=412,948) |
| 6 Ritualist | 33,444 | 54.7% ± 0.5 (n=33,444) | 8.0% (n=417,480) |
| 7 Emissary | 30,443 | 54.6% ± 0.6 (n=30,443) | 7.5% (n=403,465) |
| 8 Oracle | 38,184 | 54.3% ± 0.5 (n=38,184) | 7.0% (n=546,368) |
| 9 Phantom | 28,541 | 55.1% ± 0.6 (n=28,541) | 6.6% (n=432,077) |
| 10 Ascendant | 13,775 | 55.2% ± 0.8 (n=13,775) | 6.4% (n=213,670) |
| 11 Eternus | 4,989 | 57.1% ± 1.4 (n=4,989) | 6.4% (n=78,077) |
How we calculate this
In observed win rates, ± shows half the width of the likely range; n is the number of games or appearances counted. Percentage-point differences are labeled pp.
Win rate when bought is observed wins divided by games among buyers, with a 95% likely range. Small samples or wide ranges are withheld. Edge over same-tier items is how much better or worse the buyers did than a model of the game expected just before purchase, compared with the average for same-tier items. These cover all ranks, clean matches, and are computed daily. They are observational, do not establish cause and do not add up to a build win rate. Follow hero links for win rate impact comparisons among that hero's alternatives. Purchase rates use all player appearances in the selection.