Lucky Shot
Patch 2026-09-29.
Win rate by purchase phase
| Phase | Win rate when bought | Edge over same-tier items |
|---|---|---|
| Bought before 10 min | insufficient data (n=6) | — |
| 10–20 min | 64.3% ± 1.3 (n=5,233) | +2.3 pp |
| 20 min or later | 60.5% ± 0.2 (n=174,563) | +3.0 pp |
Edge over same-tier items, by hero
| Hero | Win rate when bought | Edge over same-tier items |
|---|---|---|
 Grey Talon | 58.8% ± 2.0 (n=2,353) | +6.0 pp |
 Dynamo | 62.3% ± 8.5 (n=122) | +3.6 pp |
 Calico | 59.3% ± 2.8 (n=1,198) | +3.6 pp |
 Holliday | 58.9% ± 1.2 (n=6,411) | +3.6 pp |
 Rem | 58.2% ± 2.8 (n=1,147) | +3.3 pp |
 Yamato | 58.2% ± 4.7 (n=423) | +3.0 pp |
 Silver | 61.9% ± 4.3 (n=491) | +2.8 pp |
 Victor | 66.4% ± 7.5 (n=149) | +2.7 pp |
 Vindicta | 61.9% ± 0.9 (n=10,656) | +2.6 pp |
 Drifter | 61.2% ± 0.6 (n=27,712) | +2.4 pp |
By rank tier
| Tier | Games | Win rate when bought | Purchase rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| All tiers | 179,802 | 60.6% ± 0.2 (n=179,802) | 3.9% (n=4,643,618) |
| 1 Initiate | 12,280 | 58.7% ± 0.9 (n=12,280) | 4.3% (n=286,633) |
| 2 Seeker | 24,828 | 60.1% ± 0.6 (n=24,828) | 4.4% (n=567,145) |
| 3 Acolyte | 22,808 | 61.0% ± 0.6 (n=22,808) | 4.2% (n=538,601) |
| 4 Sentinel | 17,942 | 60.4% ± 0.7 (n=17,942) | 3.9% (n=454,663) |
| 5 Mystic | 15,988 | 60.7% ± 0.8 (n=15,988) | 3.9% (n=412,948) |
| 6 Ritualist | 15,710 | 61.1% ± 0.8 (n=15,710) | 3.8% (n=417,480) |
| 7 Emissary | 14,508 | 60.8% ± 0.8 (n=14,508) | 3.6% (n=403,465) |
| 8 Oracle | 18,684 | 61.2% ± 0.7 (n=18,684) | 3.4% (n=546,368) |
| 9 Phantom | 14,540 | 62.2% ± 0.8 (n=14,540) | 3.4% (n=432,077) |
| 10 Ascendant | 7,411 | 61.9% ± 1.1 (n=7,411) | 3.5% (n=213,670) |
| 11 Eternus | 3,718 | 61.7% ± 1.6 (n=3,718) | 4.8% (n=78,077) |
How we calculate this
In observed win rates, ± shows half the width of the likely range; n is the number of games or appearances counted. Percentage-point differences are labeled pp.
Win rate when bought is observed wins divided by games among buyers, with a 95% likely range. Small samples or wide ranges are withheld. Edge over same-tier items is how much better or worse the buyers did than a model of the game expected just before purchase, compared with the average for same-tier items. These cover all ranks, clean matches, and are computed daily. They are observational, do not establish cause and do not add up to a build win rate. Follow hero links for win rate impact comparisons among that hero's alternatives. Purchase rates use all player appearances in the selection.