Weighted Shots
Patch 2026-09-29.
Win rate by purchase phase
| Phase | Win rate when bought | Edge over same-tier items |
|---|---|---|
| Bought before 10 min | 53.1% ± 1.7 (n=3,500) | -3.4 pp |
| 10–20 min | 51.6% ± 0.3 (n=93,053) | -3.0 pp |
| 20 min or later | 49.2% ± 0.3 (n=103,477) | -0.8 pp |
Edge over same-tier items, by hero
| Hero | Win rate when bought | Edge over same-tier items |
|---|---|---|
 Mirage | 51.1% ± 8.1 (n=141) | +5.7 pp |
 Lash | 58.8% ± 6.2 (n=240) | +4.3 pp |
 Grey Talon | 51.7% ± 2.9 (n=1,156) | +3.5 pp |
 Sinclair | 56.5% ± 4.5 (n=467) | +3.2 pp |
 Bebop | 50.6% ± 1.1 (n=7,624) | +0.7 pp |
 Warden | 44.3% ± 1.6 (n=3,508) | -0.2 pp |
 Abrams | 56.5% ± 1.0 (n=8,588) | -0.3 pp |
 Silver | 49.0% ± 0.5 (n=44,623) | -0.3 pp |
 Rat King | 57.5% ± 0.6 (n=22,256) | -0.3 pp |
 Billy | 50.1% ± 0.8 (n=14,414) | -0.4 pp |
By rank tier
| Tier | Games | Win rate when bought | Purchase rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| All tiers | 200,033 | 50.4% ± 0.2 (n=200,033) | 4.3% (n=4,643,618) |
| 1 Initiate | 14,609 | 49.4% ± 0.8 (n=14,609) | 5.1% (n=286,633) |
| 2 Seeker | 25,987 | 50.3% ± 0.6 (n=25,987) | 4.6% (n=567,145) |
| 3 Acolyte | 22,865 | 50.5% ± 0.6 (n=22,865) | 4.2% (n=538,601) |
| 4 Sentinel | 19,024 | 51.4% ± 0.7 (n=19,024) | 4.2% (n=454,663) |
| 5 Mystic | 16,991 | 50.7% ± 0.8 (n=16,991) | 4.1% (n=412,948) |
| 6 Ritualist | 17,046 | 50.5% ± 0.8 (n=17,046) | 4.1% (n=417,480) |
| 7 Emissary | 16,200 | 50.3% ± 0.8 (n=16,200) | 4.0% (n=403,465) |
| 8 Oracle | 21,872 | 50.5% ± 0.7 (n=21,872) | 4.0% (n=546,368) |
| 9 Phantom | 18,657 | 50.9% ± 0.7 (n=18,657) | 4.3% (n=432,077) |
| 10 Ascendant | 9,083 | 51.6% ± 1.0 (n=9,083) | 4.3% (n=213,670) |
| 11 Eternus | 3,432 | 48.8% ± 1.7 (n=3,432) | 4.4% (n=78,077) |
How we calculate this
In observed win rates, ± shows half the width of the likely range; n is the number of games or appearances counted. Percentage-point differences are labeled pp.
Win rate when bought is observed wins divided by games among buyers, with a 95% likely range. Small samples or wide ranges are withheld. Edge over same-tier items is how much better or worse the buyers did than a model of the game expected just before purchase, compared with the average for same-tier items. These cover all ranks, clean matches, and are computed daily. They are observational, do not establish cause and do not add up to a build win rate. Follow hero links for win rate impact comparisons among that hero's alternatives. Purchase rates use all player appearances in the selection.